NEWARK, New Jersey: A record Thanksgiving travel season was expected in the United States, but a 43-day government shutdown has reduced demand, prompting many travelers to change their plans due to cancellations, delays, and airspace restrictions.
About six million domestic passengers were forecast for the holiday, up two percent from 2024, according to AAA. But bookings slowed sharply once the shutdown passed its first month, with the steepest declines after the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) ordered flight cuts at 40 major airports.
As of November 24, bookings for the five-day Thanksgiving period were down 4.48 percent year over year, Cirium data shows. Bookings had been up 1.56 percent on Oct. 31 before falling steadily through November.
Some travelers opted out entirely. Elizabeth Kelley, 45, decided during the shutdown not to fly home to Maine for Thanksgiving. "It's not worth the mental strain and worry and what-ifs and if I get stranded, where am I going to get stuck?" she said.
At Newark Airport, FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said travelers should be prepared for crowded airports but remain confident as they head into the peak travel window. "For us, this week is our Super Bowl… Please know you should fly with confidence," he said.
Airlines said the shutdown added uncertainty to holiday demand forecasts. Southwest said the shutdown and broader economic conditions complicated predictions. Delta expects to fly about 6.5 million customers, in line with last year.
United said it anticipates flying 6.6 million passengers over a 13-day period, the most in its history for Thanksgiving. American plans nearly 81,000 flights during the same stretch, up from 77,000 in 2024.
The FAA projects the travel period will be the busiest in 15 years, with peak passenger volume on Tuesday, Nov. 25.
Travel agents have seen a return of last-minute bookings in recent days. "I don't usually get such quick and last-minute bookings," said Kimberly Hillard of Front Porch Travel. "I had two last-minute bookings this week… after many of my clients put their travel plans on hold during the shutdown."
Travelers are also avoiding major hubs. Traffic at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson — the country's busiest airport — is expected to fall 7.6 percent for Thanksgiving.
Rail and bus operators are seeing increased interest. Amtrak expects record ridership after handling 1.2 million travelers last year, while booking platform Wanderu reported a 17 percent year-over-year rise, led by bus demand.
Shutdown-related disruptions may extend into the Christmas season, with Cirium's early analysis showing bookings trending 0.42 percent lower year over year during the shutdown period.
