As unlikely as it may seem, there are still a few narrow paths remaining for the Falcons. Let's go through them.

Will McFadden

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. Following their recent 27-24 loss to the New York Jets, the Atlanta Falcons' playoff oddshave severely diminished.

According to the New York Times playoff simulator, the Falcons have less than a 1% chance of reaching the postseason with five games remaining. It's important to note, however, that "less than a 1% chance" is not the same as no chance.

As unlikely as it may seem, there are still a few narrow paths remaining for the Falcons. Using the playoff simulator mentioned above, it's possible to outline those paths.

What needs to happen for the Falcons to win their division

By no means is there a straightforward way for Atlanta to reach the postseason, but this is as close as it gets. The best waystill runs through the division, and the Falcons will need a lot of things to break right. For this possibility to even have a chance, fans in Atlanta will need to do the unthinkable: Root for the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints play the Buccaneers and Panthers in the next two weeks, and they'll need to sweep those games to give Atlanta a shot. Just as New Orleans needs to heat up, Tampa Bay and Carolina need to cool off.

The Panthers and Buccaneers can each win only one game the rest of the way, and that win needs to come at the expense of the other. If these two teams split their pair of games in Weeks 16 and 18 and lose the other matchups on their schedule, that gives Atlanta the chance to vault into first place in the final week of the season.

Of course, this all assumes Atlanta can go 5-0 down the stretch, which is no easy feat.

What needs to happen for the Falcons to earn a wild card spot

The way in which Atlanta earns a wild card spot is a bit more convoluted. Various scenarios could play out, but they all essentially boil down to the same formula.

There are four teams currently in the NFC playoff picture that have at least nine wins, including the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams. Because the best record the Falcons could attain is 9-8, this means that the remaining teams in the wild card hunt must finish with no more than eight wins. With games against the Seahawks and Rams left on the schedule, Atlanta has the opportunity to earn the tiebreaker against those teams by virtue of head-to-head outcome.

Ultimately, what remains in the Falcons' control are the outcomes of their own games. In either scenario, they'll need to take care of business down the stretch and go a perfect 5-0. Without that happening, Atlanta's chances will drop to zero. If that happens, they'll still need plenty of help.

Up Next

Videos

A.J. Terrell Jr. is the 2025 Atlanta Falcons Walter Payton Man of the Year

Videos

Darnell Mooney & others on the Falcons preparation to take on the Seahawks | Press Conference

Videos

Quarterback Kirk Cousins Week 14 Media Availability | Monday, December 3rd | Press Conference

Videos

Head Coach Raheem Morris Week 14 Media Availability | Wednesday, December 3rd | Press Conference

Videos

Ruke Orhorhoro is micd up against the New York Jets

Videos

Breaking down the monster matchup between A.J. Terrell Jr. & Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Film Review

Videos

Head Coach Raheem Morris Week 14 Media Availability | Monday, December 1st | Press Conference

Videos

Ruke Orhorhoro & JD Bertrand reflect on the Falcons loss to the Jets

Videos

Kaden Elliss & others on the Atlanta Falcons loss to the New York Jets | Press Conference

Videos

Kirk Cousins reflects on Atlanta Falcons road matchup vs New York Jets| Press Conference

Videos

Raheem Morris on Atlanta Falcons performance vs New York Jets | Press Conference

Videos

Bijan Robinson's best plays from 193-yard game vs. Jets Week 13

Videos

Falcons at Jets | NFL+ Highlights

Videos

Tyler Allgeier left all alone on 31-yard catch and run

Videos

David Sills V's second TD catch in as many weeks gives Falcons the lead vs. Jets

Videos

Zane Gonzalez 52-yard FG recaptures Falcons lead entering fourth quarter

Videos

Kyle Pitts showcases his speed on 24-yard catch

Videos

Bijan Robinson is elusive on 5-yard TD run

Videos

Bijan Robinson races into Jets territory on 42-yard catch and run

Videos

Tyler Allgeier's eighth TD run of 2025 trims Jets' lead to 7-6 in second quarter

Videos

Leonard Floyd wraps up Tyrod Taylor for Falcons sack

Videos

Bijan Robinson enters cutback lane for 26-yard gain vs. Jets

Videos

Cousins' 19-yard pass locates Deven Thompkins as WR approaches sideline

Videos

The Falcons' offense, getting pressure with 4, & what would success look like vs Jets? | Friday Five

Videos

Zac Robinson, Jeff Ulbrich & others on preparing for the New York Jets

Videos

Quarterback Kirk Cousins Week 13 Media Availability | Wednesday, November 26th | Press Conference

Videos

Raheem Morris looks ahead to Atlanta Falcons matchup vs New York Jets | Press Conference

Videos

Falcons win rivalry game on the road against the Saints | A Mini Movie

Videos

It feels GREAT to win! How the Falcons did it & why we think they can do it again | Falcons Audible

Videos

Kirk Cousins puts his veteran prowess on display in win over Saints | Film Review

Videos

Raheem Morris breaks down Atlanta Falcons win over New Orleans Saints | Press Conference

Videos

James Pearce Jr. & Zane Gonzalez reflect on the win against the Saints

Videos

A.J. Terrell is Mic'd Up In A Rivalry Matchup vs the Saints

Videos

Every Atlanta Falcons sack up until Week 12 | Highlights

Videos

Bijan Robinson, James Pearce Jr. & others on the Atlanta Falcons win at New Orleans

Videos

The Falcons are back in the win column! Breaking down Atlanta's 24-10 win | Final Whistle

Videos

Raheem Morris postgame locker room victory speech | Falcons vs. Saints

Videos

Kirk Cousins on the Atlanta Falcons win at New Orleans | Press Conference

Videos

Head Coach Raheem Morris on the win over the New Orleans Saints | Press Conference

Videos

Falcons at Saints | NFL+ Highlights